California polls show Governor's race too close to call
With 5-days remaining before election-day, the race for governor of California has tightened to a dead heat between Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown. Two separate polls confirm that the race is too close to call. In a survey conducted by Hill Research Consultants among 604 likely voters on October 26th and 27th, the race for governor is tied 43% Whitman to 43% Brown with 4% voting for another candidate and 10% being undecided or refused to respond. In a separate McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted among 900 likely voters on October 25th, 26th and 27th (300 each night), Meg Whitman has a slight lead over Jerry Brown 44% to 43% with 6% voting for another candidate and 7% remaining undecided or refused to respond. This neck and neck race represents a marked improvement for Meg Whitman who trailed Jerry Brown from October 17th to 25th in Hill Research Consultant polling, by as much as 7 percentage points at one point.
Early Voting: In McLaughlin & Associates survey of 900 likely voters, the early voting is helping Meg Whitman. As of last night, 25% of the voters say that they have already voted by absentee mail in and among these voters Meg Whitman leads 43% to 40%. There are another 27% who tell us they will vote by early absentee mail between now and Saturday and Meg Whitman wins among those voters 48% to 43%. Among the 43% who tell us that they will vote in person on election day, it's a virtual tie with Meg Whitman 43% and Jerry Brown 45%.
With 5-days remaining before election-day, the race for governor of California has tightened to a dead heat between Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown. Two separate polls confirm that the race is too close to call. In a survey conducted by Hill Research Consultants among 604 likely voters on October 26th and 27th, the race for governor is tied 43% Whitman to 43% Brown with 4% voting for another candidate and 10% being undecided or refused to respond. In a separate McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted among 900 likely voters on October 25th, 26th and 27th (300 each night), Meg Whitman has a slight lead over Jerry Brown 44% to 43% with 6% voting for another candidate and 7% remaining undecided or refused to respond. This neck and neck race represents a marked improvement for Meg Whitman who trailed Jerry Brown from October 17th to 25th in Hill Research Consultant polling, by as much as 7 percentage points at one point.
Early Voting: In McLaughlin & Associates survey of 900 likely voters, the early voting is helping Meg Whitman. As of last night, 25% of the voters say that they have already voted by absentee mail in and among these voters Meg Whitman leads 43% to 40%. There are another 27% who tell us they will vote by early absentee mail between now and Saturday and Meg Whitman wins among those voters 48% to 43%. Among the 43% who tell us that they will vote in person on election day, it's a virtual tie with Meg Whitman 43% and Jerry Brown 45%.
Methodologies: The separate surveys conducted by Hill Research Consultants and McLaughlin & Associates, shared a similar methodology but were administered independently of each other. Both firms purchased their own separate California voter files. Each firm screened for "likely" voters. The interviews conducted by each firm were random within predetermined election units that were structured to statistically correlate with actual general election voter distributions. The accuracy of a sample of 600 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval. The accuracy of a sample of 900 likely general election voters is within +/- 3.3% at a 95% confidence interval. The governor's ballot was asked with each of the six candidate's names, their party registration and their ballot title as described by the Secretary of State's office. McLaughlin & Associates survey had a party registration of 44% Democrat, 38% Republican and 18% Independent/DTS/Other. In the Hill Research Consultants survey, the party registration was 44% Democrat, 36% Republican and 20% Independent/DTS/Other.